🧮 Kelly Criterion Calculator
Calculate the mathematically optimal stake size based on your edge and bankroll using the Kelly Criterion formula.
The Kelly Criterion calculates the mathematically optimal percentage of your bankroll to stake based on the odds and your estimated edge. It maximises long-term growth while controlling risk.
Kelly %
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Recommended Stake
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Edge
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What is this tool?
The Kelly Criterion calculator determines the mathematically optimal percentage of your bankroll to stake on a bet. It balances potential growth with risk of ruin, ensuring you never bet too much or too little relative to your edge.
How to use it
When to use it
Use this when you have a genuine edge on a bet. If your research suggests a 55% probability but the odds imply only 45%, the Kelly Criterion tells you exactly how much to stake. It is most useful for long-term, disciplined bettors.
💡 Pro tip
Many experienced bettors use 'half Kelly' or 'quarter Kelly' to reduce variance. Full Kelly maximizes long-term growth but can lead to large swings. If Kelly suggests 10% of your bankroll, consider staking 5% (half Kelly) for smoother results.